View from Australia: The Santorum shall inherit the earth

By Jonathan Bradley

And so in Iowa, as in heaven, the last shall be first. The Santorum will inherit the Republican Party.

That's what the polls out of the first-to-vote state are suggesting, anyway. Rick Santorum, the former senator from Pennsylvania, whose career ended in 2006 after two terms when he suffered an ignominious 17.36 point defeat to his Democratic opponent Bob Casey, Jr., looks set to finish in the top three in tonight's Iowa caucuses.

Despite pratically living in Iowa for the duration of his campaign — he has visited all 99 of the state's counties — Santorum spent most of 2011 as a footnote to the contest. And not even one of the exciting footnotes either, like Michele Bachmann or Herman Cain, who appealed to many of the same religious conservatives from whom Santorum hoped to draw support. Up until a week ago, Rick Santorum was having a good day if his Iowa polling average broke three per cent.

That's all changed now, and at a most felicitous time for the candidate. Sunday's Public Policy Polling figures tell the story: Santorum at 18 per cent, is in a statistical three-way tie for first with Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. Real Clear Politics has him at 16.3 per cent, in third place, while FiveThirtyEight also puts him at third, figuring he has a one in five shot at victory. Futures website InTrade has him with a 22.1 per cent chance of winning Iowa, third behind Paul (28.1) and Romney (48.7). And there's more good news for Santorum in the PPP analysis:

Santorum's net favorability of 60/30 makes him easily the most popular candidate in the field. No one else's favorability exceeds 52%. He may also have more room to grow in the final 48 hours of the campaign than the other front runners: 14% of voters say he's their second choice to 11% for Romney and only 8% for Paul. Santorum's taken the lead with two key groups of Republican voters: with Tea Partiers he's at 23% to 18% for Gingrich, 16% for Paul, 15% for Bachmann, and only 12% for Romney. And with Evangelicals he's at 24% to 16% for Gingrich, and 15% for Paul and Romney.

Third would be good enough for Santorum. Spin and press reaction are two of the most important factors in the aftermath of Iowa, and the press loves an underdog. Even if Santorum can't get the most votes in tonight's caucuses, he'll have performed far better than anyone expected him to a month ago. The media will be buzzing with excitement about who this guy is and how the heck he came from out of nowhere to give presumed frontrunner Mitt Romney a scare.

(The same, to a lesser extent, will apply to party oddball Ron Paul, but with a key difference: Most of the Republican Party loathes many of Ron Paul's policies and will eagerly tell anyone with a camera, microphone, or pen and paper that the Texas Congressman's support means nothing at all.)

But does it matter? After all, this nomination race has seen any number of Republicans surge in popularity, enjoy a brief moment in the spotlight, and then fade as their weaknesses grow too apparent. Santorum might be popular at a fortunate moment, but 49 states still have to vote after Iowa, and lest we forget, strong showings in the Hawkeye State couldn't make Mike Huckabee (in 2008) or Pat Robertson (in 1988) the party nominee. 

During their respective bursts of popularity, I said that Newt Gingrich, Herman Cain, and Ron Paul should not be taken as serious contenders for the Republican nomination — though I was a little more ambivalent on Gingrich. Throughout 2011, I maintained that though it was foolish to make predictions about the GOP race, there had been very little evidence of anyone who could successfully challenge Mitt R0mney. Rick Perry looked as if he had the potential to make the contest competitive, but after announcing his candidacy, he did as much as possible to squander that chance.

Rick Santorum might turn out to be another Cain, Bachmann, or Gingrich — a passing fancy of a party struggling to come to terms with the fact that its only real standard bearer is Romney. But Santorum is a former senator. Like Perry, he has solid political credentials, and unlike Paul, Bachmann, and Gingrich, he has proven he can appeal to a constituency larger than a single House district. If the Republican Party really does not want to choose Romney as its nominee, Santorum could offer himself as a credible alternative in a way someone like Herman Cain, who has never held political office, could not. 

Santorum has solid social conservative credentials, and he fits within the worldview of the American right, though some members of the Republican base think he's too moderate on economic issues. He has a few other things working against him as well: His 2006 electoral defeat gave him a reputation for being unpopular. Would a victory in Iowa work to erase that? Considering the recency of his surge, he has not received the media scrutiny other Republicans have. But are his flaws fatal? And though he has expended a lot of energy in Iowa, Santorum has almost no campaign infrastructure established outside the state. Even if he can convert a good result this evening into endorsements and donations, could he get himself set up in New Hampshire and South Carolina quickly enough to maintain his momentum?

There's a lot working against Santorum, and whatever happens in Iowa, Mitt Romney will stay in the race as the favourite. It's entirely possible Romney will win Iowa and New Hampshire, pull in a slew of party support and donations, and wrap it all up before the end of the month. Rick Santorum has today only a slightly better shot at the nomination than he did on Christmas Eve. But unlike Michele Bachmann, Ron Paul or Herman Cain, Santorum provides Republicans with a credible alternative.

Are they interested in taking it?

3 January 2012