Duelling dynasties
We all think we know how world history will play out over the next 50 years. China, bursting with nationalistic energy, will overtake the United States as the world’s largest economy and dominant superpower. The US, burdened by debt, stretched by imperial obligations and hamstrung by political infighting, will continue its relentless and inevitable decline. If the 20th century was the American Century, the 21st will be the Chinese century.
I don’t doubt that China will eventually ascend to superpower status. It’s already pretty close. But I also don’t believe China’s rise will be as smooth or effortless as so many analysts seem to believe. China is bound to suffer a few bumps and bruises along the road to global greatness. When the US was becoming a superpower, it passed through recessions, setbacks, crises, panics, even a civil war. Why would China be...
