Campaign Notes: Three reasons it's Mitt

By John Barron

There are three reasons why Mitt Romney is looking like the surest of sure bets to become the Republican Party’s Presidential nominee: first, he’s the establishment’s next-in-line, second, he has run an almost flawless campaign, and third... and third... oops.

Oh yeah. Rick Perry, the only likely alternative, can’t seem to complete sentences.

Romney may have the charisma of a menswear store mannequin, but increasingly he’s being cast in the minds of many Republicans as the only one they can trust to take on and beat Barack Obama next year.

And while Mitt’s struggled to gain more than 30 per cent support among Republicans, half as many again — 45 per cent — think Romney will be their nominee. And his support is solid, according to Gallup. Whereas 84 per cent of Romney supporters think he’ll be the nominee, only 42 per cent of Herman Cain supporters think their candidate can win, and 17 per cent of Republicans think Perry will be nominated — with just 9 per cent actually supporting him.

But, as we discussed previously, that doesn’t mean the quest for an alternative is over just yet. As the unlikely rise of Herman Cain is halted by more serious allegations of sexual impropriety, and the erstwhile conservative saviour Rick Perry raises more eyebrows than supporters, the anti-Romney bloc is now looking seriously at Newt Gingrich.

Newt was written off as a joke candidate in June, when he followed his presidential announcement with a summer cruise. By July his top staff had decided he wasn’t really in the race and jumped ship. Many, like Dave Carney, went to Perry (but may now wish they hadn’t).

By August, Gingrich was playing the role of second-curmudgeon behind Ron Paul — a font of ideas with no hope of breaking into the top tier. In September and October it was assumed Newt was running so he could pay off his big tab at Tiffany’s by spruiking his latest book — which he mentions often on the stump and even during televised debates.

In the first polls to begin to take in both Perry’s excruciating mental block in Michigan and the appearance of Herman Cain’s public accuser Sharon Bialek, Gingrich was surging. Marist had Gingrich passing Cain and second to Romney, and CBS News had Gingrich tied for second with Romney, while still trailing Cain. Gingrich continues his rise in Iowa and South Carolina — the latter of which has become the best early predictor of who the nominee will be.

It’s still possible between now and Christmas that the game of musical chairs will end and that enough of the Republicans who have been shopping around for Anyone-But-Romney will settle for Mitt as the At-Least-He’s-Less-Liberal-Than-Obama candidate. But the conditions seem ripe for a long and self-destructive primary battle. Romney, like Obama in 2008, could face months of being the likely winner without being able to seal the deal.

That’s when the GOP establishment will be pressuring the likes of Gingrich, Cain, Perry, Paul, or whoever is still standing to bow out gracefully before the nominee is irreparably damaged. Just as Romney once did for John McCain.

15 November 2011