Campaign Notes: All eyes on the Hawkeye State

By John Barron

As the rest of America prepares for the holidays, ordering in the hams and turkey and picking up the tree, about one hundred and fifty thousand Iowans are about to decide who they want to be the Republican challenger to Barack Obama next November.

It’s a style of democracy that goes back to colonial times — town hall-style meetings at 1800 precinct “caucuses” across Iowa’s 99 counties, all held at school gyms and community centres, in the depths of winter, on the night of Tuesday, January 3.

After six months at the centre of the political universe, most Iowans have seen and even met each of the Presidential candidates several times — at the soap box at the Iowa State Fair in August; at any number of coffee shop meetings, ice cream socials, rallies, dinners, speeches; and in their own business-places, factories and homes.

Many conservatives started out 2011 liking the look of Minnesotans Michele Bachmann and Tim Pawlenty, then in the summer they gravitated towards Texas governor Rick Perry. In the fall they were wooed by businessman Herman Cain, and now former House speaker Newt Gingrich is their favorite. A more steadfast bunch has stuck with either former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney or Congressman Ron Paul of Texas all the way through.

But now, as the mercury dips below minus-10 and the settled snow mixes with the truckloads of road salt to form a sickly grey embankment along the streets of Des Moines and Iowa City, it’s time to decide.

From about 9pm on January 3, Iowans’ votes will be tallied and reported around the world. A few dozen extra votes can make or break a Presidential campaign.

Historically, for some candidates, like Senator Barack Obama in 2008, a win in Iowa was decisive in winning the nomination and, ultimately, the White House ten months later. For other candidates like frontrunner Ed Muskie in 1972, a win in Iowa by a slender margin proved his weakness in the face of Senator George McGovern’s anti-war insurgency.

Mostly Iowa tends to winnow the field, rather than pick the nominee. The old saying goes “there are three tickets out of Iowa: first, second and third.” The rest may as well pack up and head home rather than on to New Hampshire’s primary a week later.

This year Barack Obama is uncontested in the Democratic caucuses, although his campaign is hoping for a large turnout to boost morale. For the Republicans, Gingrich, Paul, and Romney have dibs on those “three tickets out,” but there’s a chance Perry, Bachmann, or former senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania could grab the last seat in coach class. Particularly if Ron Paul is still being written off as a stow-away.

And as the race to win caucuses, primaries, and delegates gets underway, endorsement season is reaching its peak.

Endorsements seem to come in three general categories: the endorsement from an influential political leader; the editorial endorsement from a newspaper, magazine or broadcaster; and the celebrity endorsement.

While the influence of these endorsements may be debatable, they do, at the very least, provide an insight into the sorts of individuals and groups who are falling in behind a candidate.

Mitt Romney has won the backing of the editors of the Des Moines Register, which will help soothe the sting of seeing the New Hampshire Union Leader get behind Newt Gingrich.

On December 18th the Register wrote: “Sobriety, wisdom and judgment. Those are the qualities Mitt Romney said he looked for in a leader. Those are the qualities Romney himself has demonstrated in his career in business, public service and government.”

Contrast that with the Union Leader’s boost to Newt: “We are in critical need of the innovative, forward-looking strategy and positive leadership that Gingrich has shown he is capable of providing.” The New Hampshire paper’s editor Joe McQuaid continued, “Newt Gingrich is by no means the perfect candidate, but Republican primary voters too often make the mistake of preferring the unattainable ideal to the best candidate who is actually running.”

You get the impression the Register is contrasting Romney with Gingrich, where the Leader is arguing for Gingrich over someone the Tea Party might see as less a creature of Washington.

And that could well be the argument we see play out in the weeks and months ahead, and in that sense, his history of lacking “sobriety, wisdom and judgment” could be Newt’s major hurdle, while his greater appeal to conservatives will surely be his asset.

But those are just two newspapers in the first two states to vote.

Romney has a lock on the endorsement of former rivals and fellow politicos: former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty, New Jersey governor Chris Christie, South Carolina governor Nicki Haley, former Kansas senator Bob Dole, Vice President Dan Quayle, and former New Hampshire governor John Sununu. Romney has even won a few more dubious backers, including Tea Party favorite and “not-witch” Christine O’Donnell, who lost her shoo-in Delaware senate bid in 2011, and defended Romney’s conservative credentials thus: "he’s been consistent since he changed his mind."

Gingrich, meanwhile, has been the subject of as many warnings as endorsements.

The National Review said nominating Gingrich would blow a good opportunity to win back the White House. Former Republican congressional colleagues including Jim Talent (“not reliable as a leader”) Tom Coburn (“lacking” and “the last person I’d vote for [President]”) and Peter King (“Everything was self-centered. There was a lack of intellectual discipline.”).

Even Oscar-nominated actor Gary Busey, who is better-known these days for his appearances in Donald Trump’s reality TV show "Celebrity Apprentice," and, occasionally, in the courts or alcohol rehab, endorsed then suddenly dis-endorsed Gingrich in mid-December. (Busey had earlier endorsed Trump and his Gingrich back-track was seen as a clue The Donald is still pondering an independent White House run.)

Celebrities — especially those not exactly on the A-List, like Busey — are easy to dismiss in political campaigns, yet in states like Iowa and New Hampshire, where getting people to the caucuses or primary day ballot is largely about engaging them at house parties and rallies, they may have an impact.

In 2008, 1980s movie star Chuck Norris campaigned with Mike Huckabee in Iowa. Tim Robbins and Susan Sarandon stumped for John Edwards there as well, but it was talkshow queen Oprah Winfrey who had the biggest impact, putting Barack Obama over the top in the first-to-vote state.

Just as star-backing may or may not make a difference, editorial-backing is just as hard to quantify.

In 2008, the Des Moines Register endorsed Republican John McCain and Democrat Hillary Clinton, who both came third in their respective contests in Iowa, while McCain’s support from the Union Leader in New Hampshire was also a blow to Romney.

And ultimately, newspapers and politicians, if not celebrities, have a tendency to endorse who they think will win — just as donors will — in the hope of future influence.

But still, for a frontrunner like Mitt Romney, while a particular newspaper, retired Senator, or out-of-work actor’s endorsement may make a huge difference, better they go to you than someone else.

Unless, of course, it’s Gary Busey.

23 December 2011