America in Asia: A faster Afghanistan withdrawal?

By C Raja Mohan

The Obama Administration is debating the option of ending the American combat role in Afghanistan much earlier than the previous deadline of 2014, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal this week.

The decision, which could be announced in the next few months, could bring the 'end-game' in Afghanistan much closer into 2012, and accelerate the regional power play to control the destiny of Kabul.

In December 2009, President Barack Obama had announced a military "surge and exit" plan for Afghanistan. Under the plan the US would deploy an additional 33 000 troops in Afghanistan, start thinning them out from 201,1 and retain only military training and advisory missions in Afghanistan by 2014.

Amidst the declining support for the Afghan war at home, Obama is apparently considering an end to combat role as early as next year, which also happens to be the season of presidential elections in the United States.

The Obama Administration, however, continues to be interested in maintaining a military presence in Afghanistan, from which to launch counter-terrorism missions against the extremist sanctuaries in the tribal lands of Pakistan.

At the heart of the new debate is the argument in a section of the administration that the strategy of using a military surge to stabilise Afghanistan is not working too well.

The US military, however, would prefer maintaining as high a presence as long as possible as it holds out the hope that the Taliban and the Haqqani network can be beaten into submission.

Amidst the recent spectacular attacks launched by the Taliban and the Haqqani network in Kabul and the unwillingness of the Pakistan army to squeeze the militant groups on its territory, there is little confidence within the White House that Afghan stability is around the corner.

American pessimism about the current strategy is not limited to the Democratic Party. Sections of the Republican party are beginning to come to the same conclusion and might make an early withdrawal politically less controversial.

Mitt Romney, the leading contender for Republican presidential nomination, however, is taking the traditional conservative position that the United States should not leave Afghanistan without stabilizing the nation. He has hinted at a probable extension of the US combat role in Afghanistan.

If the US decides on a faster end to its combat role in Afghanistan, the pressure to resolve the issues relating to Pakistan acquire a greater urgency in Washington. Whether this involves more US concessions to the Pakistan army or a confrontation with Rawalpindi remains to be seen.

This post was originally published in the India Express.

7 November 2011