Campaign Notes: Wargaming 2012

By John Barron

Less than four weeks out from the first vote for the 2012 Republican presidential nominee in the Iowa caucuses, and the race still appears wide open.

Going by the latest poll from the Des Moines Register, Newt Gingrich is set to win Iowa on January 3 with 25 per cent of the vote, a full 7 per cent ahead of Ron Paul and 9 per cent in front of Mitt Romney. Gingrich is also well placed to take a good slice of Herman Cain’s diehard 8 per cent of Iowans — he’s second preference to 3 per cent, while Rick Perry, Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann each pick up 1 per cent.

If the Register’s pollsters are right and the old adage that “there are just three tickets out of Iowa” holds true, then Bachmann, Perry, Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman can all go back to their day jobs on Wednesday, January 4.

But if they decide to soldier on to New Hampshire, there isn’t much good news to be had there right now either. Mitt Romney has a commanding 16 per cent lead over Gingrich, 23 per cent clear of Ron Paul, with Jon Huntsman’s persistent moderation winning over 9 per cent of Granite-staters.

So, if the polls remain as they are in early December (which, admittedly, is a little like saying if the score after the first innings of a cricket test stays the same after the second) Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney will head south of the Mason-Dixon for the South Carolina primary on January 20 with one win apiece.

And that’s where things could get grim for Romney; the Palmetto State has become the best early indicator of who the GOP nominee will be, and Mitt Romney’s narrow October lead evaporated in Newt-vember to see Gingrich enjoying a thumping 23 per cent buffer in December. And, if the Florida polls were locked-in now, Gingrich would romp home with 41 per cent of the Republican vote, 24 per cent clear of Romney, who would then be just 1-from-4 heading into February.

And none of those numbers take into account the former Cain supporters or the hand-me-downs from Bachmann, Perry or Santorum (if they have bowed out by then), and none of them have indicated they are yet ready to back Romney over Gingrich.

Nationally, former House speaker Gingrich now enjoys a substantial 21 per cent lead over Romney, which would seem to make the Republican’s nomination of Newt Gingrich for the Presidency look highly likely.

I stress the “look” because four years ago the nomination of Republican Rudy Giuliani looked highly likely, as did Democrat Howard Dean’s nomination in December 2004.

As I have said a number of times in these weekly dispatches over the past few months, it’s one thing to tell a robo-pollster in December who you would vote for today, it’s another thing to take two hours out of a Tuesday night in the middle of winter to caucus at your local school gymnasium in someplace like Sioux City or Davenport, Iowa. That takes real commitment, and a lot can change in the minds of voters between now and January 3.

But what?

Surely after a six-month campaign and more than a dozen televised debates, the voters in the early primary states must have formed a pretty firm opinion of the field of would-be Commanders-in-Chief.

While none of the meteoric conservative challengers to Mitt Romney have enjoyed a second wind yet, Texas Governor Rick Perry has the money to stay in the race until voters have a second look. If some of the Perry supporters who jumped to Herman Cain in September and October jump back to Perry in December and January he could grab that third ticket from Iowa to New Hampshire.

But if they still don’t like their second look at Perry, there’s every chance that the other Rick — Santorum — could be the big story on Caucus night. He’s virtually camped in Iowa for six months, running a similar grassroots effort to caucus winner Huckabee in 2008, and unlike the other conservatives, Rick Santorum hasn’t peaked too early. His pitch to “values voters” became overt when the former Pennsylvania senator shamelessly buttered up Governor Mike during the Huckabee-hosted Presidential forum on Fox News this past Sunday.

It was only in December 2007, after all, that Huckabee emerged as a serious threat to Romney in Iowa.

And then there’s Ron Paul — the only candidate who could finish first, second or third in Iowa, yet still not be taken as a serious Presidential contender by 75 per cent of the primary electorate and 100 per cent of the media.

The GOP learned the hard way with Barry Goldwater that while ideologues can change the party’s direction, they don’t win the White House.

6 December 2011