Campaign Notes: The Gadfly

By John Barron

Supporters of the cranky Republican Presidential candidate Ron Paul can’t understand why nobody thinks the Texas Congressman can be elected President. It drives ‘em nuts. (Although some might argue that’s quite a short journey.)

They’ll point out he’s now coming third in national polls behind just Rick Perry and Mitt Romney, with more support than Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain and Rick Santorum put together.

And it’s true that in the most important vote to date, the Iowa Straw Poll at Ames in August, Ron Paul came a very close second to Bachmann, blitzed the rest of the field and sent the lacklustre Tim Pawlenty back to Minnesota.

Dr Paul’s brand of libertarian-infused Republicanism attracts support from both the right and the left, and he can rightly claim to be the first to tap into the emerging anti-tax Tea Party movement in 2007, if not to be its founding father.

His is also the only Republican candidate who can make the claim he was endorsed by the late Ronald Reagan.

On top of that, Ron Paul’s a proven money-maker, hauling in an impressive $1.6 million in online contributions in just one day: August 20th — his Birthday.

Some, including the Daily Show’s Jon Stewart, have taken the media to task for writing Ron Paul off. 

So, why is it that nobody in the media or the wider political commentariat — with the exception of Jon Stewart — seems to take Paul seriously as a Presidential contender?

Well, there is the fact that this latest birthday was his 76th — making him a full seven years older than the aforementioned Ronald Reagan at the time of his election.

Then there’s the fact that this is Dr. Paul’s third bid for the White House... although, technically, Reagan was also running for the third time in 1980.

Okay, you’ve made me say it: the reason nobody thinks Ron Paul can be elected President is because he isn’t running to be President.

Sure, he has to say he’s running. He needs to set up the exploratory committee, print the yard signs and file the paperwork with the FEC, but only the more idealistic — or stoned — Ron Paul supporters believe it. (And Jon Stewart is surely playing to the latter.)

Ron Paul is running for the same reason all gadfly candidates run; by getting on the stage he changes the political centre of gravity.

Ron Paul is running for the same reason fellow Congressman, Democrat Dennis Kucinich ran for the Presidency in 2004 and 2008, why Conservative Gary Bauer ran in 2000, why Pat Buchanan ran in 1992, 1996 and 2000, and arguably why Herman Cain and Rick Santorum are running this time — to help shape the debate.

It is also, I am told, why another doctor of medicine, Howard Dean ran in 2004 — and he’s a cautionary tale of what can happen if a gadfly takes off and suddenly has a chance to be nominated.

Gadflies have no wings.

But just as Howard Dean brought the issues of healthcare and opposition to the Iraq war into the forefront of the Democratic Primary campaign in 2004, by claiming 13-percent support in national polls Ron Paul is telling Perry and Romney what they need to say about the role of government, the Federal Reserve and the military to win over that substantial chunk of support.

It will be interesting to see who the 52 per cent of Republicans who don’t currently support Perry or Romney will back when the gadflies like Ron Paul inevitably bow out — or whether they’ll just stay at home.

20 September 2011