Campaign Notes: The Frontrunner

By John Barron

Four years ago, in a crowded field of around twenty Republicans and Democrats seeking to take over from President George W. Bush, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and New York Senator and former First Lady Hillary Clinton were the national frontrunners.

Like many before them, including Senator Edmund Muskie in 1972, Senator Gary Hart in 1988 and Governor Howard Dean in 2004, those early race leaders faded well before the finishing line.

It's not an absolute rule. Other frontrunners have either stayed in front or regained their ascendency — Reagan came back from an early setback in Iowa in 1980 to win the Republican nomination and the Presidency, and Bill Clinton famously became the "comeback kid" in the New Hampshire primary of 1992.

Even Senator John McCain proved numerous reports of his political death were exaggerated right through 2007 until the last rites were finally administered in November 2008.

So how is the current Republican frontrunner Mitt Romney planning to run this 2012 race?

Slow and steady seems to be the approach – that and trying not to look like he's running too hard, particularly in first-to-vote Iowa.

Romney has learned from his $25-million spending spree in 2007 that money alone can't buy you the love of the often fickle, mostly conservative Republican Iowa caucus-goers. His wooden performance in what is still a retail politics state, and no doubt some wariness among evangelical Christian voters to support a Mormon candidate, saw Mike Huckabee sweep to a victory in early 2008.

To a large extent, that costly experience is why Romney is skipping next month's Iowa Ames Straw Poll. Romney won at Ames in 2007, but it was Mike Huckabee's surprise second place finish that led the news bulletins the next day and gave the former Arkansas Governor the momentum to win the Iowa caucuses five months later.

Ames is a crucial test of a Republican candidate's organisational ability — get a few thousand supporters into buses up to Iowa State University to cast a vote after paying $35 for the privilege on a Saturday in summer, and chances are you can get them out to caucus for you on a cold Tuesday night the following January.

But after last time, Romney is playing down expectations in Iowa, and betting instead on the more moderate second-to-vote primary state of New Hampshire, where he's more than 20 per cent in front of his nearest rivals.

There's another factor Romney has to contend with: the media really doesn't like a front-runner. Pundits may or may not be biased, but they sure do get bored. You can't keep filing up all those endless panel chat shows on CNN, Fox and MSNBC talking about Mitt being way out in front. Naturally enough they soon start scouting around for the challenger, the insurgent, the upstart, the dark horse candidate — after all, nobody likes being told the game is over before quarter-time.

So we can expect to hear plenty about Bachmann, Pawlenty, Santorum, Perry, Cain, Gingrich and the rest, and not so much about the frontrunner Mitt Romney in the weeks ahead. And while the others fight for the title of conservative standard-bearer, Romney will try to present himself as being the moderate who floats above some of the news-cycle huff-and-puffery. It may not win him Iowa, but plays well in the Granite State and, he hopes, nationally. And for now, Mitt Romney, the Republican frontrunner, may even be able to stop looking over his shoulder long enough to cast an eye forward towards President Obama.

Although President Muskie, President Hart, President Dean and President Giuliani may all caution against that.

25 July 2011