Campaign Notes: The Battle Begins

By John Barron

Springfield, Missouri: The Republican Party is at a crossroads.

The GOP Straw Poll in Ames, Iowa could have been named the Tea Party Straw Poll such was the influence of the grassroots fiscal conservatives who flocked — or rather, bussed — there.

The head of the Congressional Tea Party Caucus Michele Bachmann of Minnesota stormed the pay-per-vote conservative fiesta, and the libertarian godfather Ron Paul came a close second — thanks in part to a bunch of twenty-somethings in torn jeans and army shirts who looked like extras in a revival of Hair.

The fact that Ron Paul's supporters don't appear to be actual Republicans has the party and pundits alike immediately writing off any significance to his strong showing. Yet Bachmann was vaulted into the top tier of candidates seeking the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination. She won the poll after outshining Minnesotan Tim Pawlenty in Iowa — a state he had to win next February for his particular road to the White House.

Another Tea Party favourite, Texas Governor Rick Perry skipped the Iowa Straw poll and instead announced his candidacy at a conference hosted by conservative bloggers in South Carolina. Yet at the Fox News debate last Thursday night, at the State Fair on Friday and at the Straw Poll on Saturday, lots of Republicans were talking about him with a certain excitement.

Aside from the Ron Paul purists, most Tea Partiers in Iowa seem to have backed Bachmann until now, but she's no certainty to win the caucuses early next year if Perry catches fire in this state.

At some point, members of the Tea Party movement will have to settle on a candidate, and at that moment we will see their power either magnify or dissipate. Will they stick with Bachmann? The loyalty they showed Ron Paul and the general rigidity of their approach suggests they might. But Perry, as a governor, is clearly more electable than a member of the House of Representatives with no executive experience.

With Pawlenty gone, Perry, not Bachmann, seems set to emerge as the anti-Romney.

And not a single Tea Partier I've spoken to wants Mitt Romney to be their nominee.

As the votes were being counted in Ames, Iowa, six hours south at Wilson's Creek, Missouri, there was a 150th anniversary Civil War re-enactment underway.

The battle saw insurgent Confederate militias overwhelm and rout the establishment Union forces through weight of superior numbers and the firepower of their two-pound cannons.

Thousands died and the rebels were triumphant. Yet though this early battle was lost, the Union's ultimate goal was achieved. Missouri did not join the rebellion and the establishment won out.

Mitt Romney may well hope history will repeat itself once again.

16 August 2011