Campaign Notes: Iowa's split decision

By John Barron

Des Moines, Iowa, Tuesday January 3rd: As tens of thousands of Iowans headed out to their local school gyms, community centres, and fire stations to caucus for their preferred Republican presidential nominee, there was as much a sense of “let get this thing done” as actual enthusiasm.

After a year or more of campaigning, and literally dozens of phone calls every week from campaign volunteers and pollsters, for most Iowans this day couldn’t come soon enough.

Still, being the first state to vote for the presidential nominee is a duty most Iowans take very seriously.

“Obama’s been a failure,” says Des Moines resident Tim Neiss, “and sometimes he’s been just plain nasty.”

On a crystal-clear day that dawned at minus-ten degrees Celsius, but warmed up to a balmy zero by caucus time, Tim and his wife Jane cast their ballots for Mitt Romney at King Elementary School. “I was quite surprised we settled on Romney,” says Jane, who describes herself as a lifelong conservative.

While Tim and Jane say Romney may not be the most conservative candidate, he is, they believe, the best qualified to be president. And besides, Tim says, “maybe we need a more moderate president after the partisanship of Obama.”

Tim and Jane Neiss have been to their share of campaign events and Jane even went to the debate last month down the road at Drake University. “I think that’s why I’ve gone for Romney,” Jane tells me, “he was so impressive, very presidential.”

7:02pm: As the Caucus at King Elementary gets underway, supporters of each of the candidates are asked to stand up in front of the group of fifty or so like they are giving a school report.

Chris is in his late thirties, with a crew cut topping his six foot six frame. He speaks to the caucus-goers on behalf of former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum, “he’s been a very consistent conservative right from the get-go, and he’s very trustworthy.”

Nicole is a 20 year old first-time voter caucusing for Ron Paul. She rejects claims Paul is unelectable because he opposes US military intervention overseas: “I’ve heard that a lot, but when you look into it, it becomes clear it’s the only solution to our problems.”

When the call goes out for someone to speak for Mitt Romney, Tim raises his hand and testifies his belief Romney has what it takes to beat Obama.
There are speakers for Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann as well, but when the caucus leader calls for someone to speak for Jon Huntsman no hands are raised and a laugh spreads across the room.

At 7.34pm, when the ballots are counted, Ron Paul has won the precinct with fourteen votes, ahead of Rick Santorum’s eight, and Mitt Romney’s four. The rest get just one or two supporters.

Meanwhile, as the votes are tallied from more than 1700 precincts across Iowa, a similar pattern appears: first it’s Paul, Romney, and Santorum; then its Romney, Santorum, and Paul; then it’s Santorum ahead… then Romney… then Santorum.

By 10.05pm it’s a cliffhanger, the closest caucus or primary vote since South Dakota’s GOP ballot in 1936 was won by 257 votes.

With 90 per cent of the vote counted, Romney is 13 votes ahead of Santorum.

Ron Paul appears in Ankeny, just outside Des Moines, to concede he’s come third, but vows to fight on as one of only two candidates with a national campaign and the ability to raise money — the other presumably being Romney.

At 10.19pm Gingrich appears and pointedly congratulates his “friend” Rick Santorum, who ran “a great, positive campaign” but not Mitt Romney, who he described as a “liar” for not accepting responsibility for the blitz of negative advertisements.

Gingrich says he’s the conservative “heir of Reagan” who will win the nomination over the “Massachusetts moderate.” It is clear that Gingrich is angry and up for a fight.

As 11 o’clock approaches, at the Marriott in West Des Moines, Michele Bachmann reads a prepared statement like a hostage video. She says even though she came in sixth, she’s the one to beat Obama in 2012.

Minutes later, it’s Rick Perry’s turn, over at the Sheraton. Surely he’ll bow out? Well, kinda. Perry stumbles through a biblical passage before announcing he’ll now return to Texas and consider his campaign’s future with prayer and reflection.

11.02pm: With 97 per cent of the votes counted, Santorum leads Romney by 37.

11.18pm: Rick Santorum take to the stage at his campaign headquarters in Johnston and gives thanks to his wife, god and Iowa in that order. As he speaks, Romney moves 62 votes ahead with 98 per cent counted.

11.29pm: 99 per cent counted. Santorum leads by 5 votes.

11.40pm: Mitt Romney appears on stage at the downtown Hotel Fort Des Moines and congratulates Rick Santorum on his performance in Iowa, before launching into his stump speech attacking Obama’s record on job creation and stopping Iran developing nuclear weapons technology.

11.53pm: CNN reports with 99.5 per cent counted, Santorum is 27 votes ahead.

12.13am: 99.9 per cent, and Santorum leads by 18 votes.

12.43am: With one precinct in Clinton County to report, Santorum leads by four.

1.03am: On Fox News, former Bush advisor Karl Rove announces Romney will win by 14 votes. At 1.20am CNN agrees. At the Hotel Fort Des Moines, Romney staff open beers, but, as a Mormon, Mitt of course doesn’t drink alcohol.

1.39am: The Iowa GOP announces Karl Rove is wrong. Romney has won by eight votes.

Exciting stuff for political junkies to be sure, but what does it really mean for the race for the White House?

The old saying goes “There are three tickets out of Iowa” for candidates standing in the first-in-the-nation caucuses. Some years that’s true, but maybe not this year.

Given Ron Paul’s unconventional foreign policy positions and Rick Santorum’s small bank balance and potentially limited appeal beyond evangelical Christian conservatives, fourth placed Newt Gingrich can probably buy that fourth ticket, even if he can’t claim to be Mitt Romney’s main rival anymore.

Gingrich has been the target of a withering $2.5 million negative advertising campaign in Iowa, funded by a so-called Super-PAC (political action committee), which can spend unlimited funds working for or against a particular candidate, and are outside the usual campaign finance restrictions thanks to a 2010 Supreme Court ruling.

And while Newt’s lead in Iowa of just two weeks ago collapsed by caucus night, he remains quite competitive nationally. He still leads in the first-in-the-South state of South Carolina and the swing-state of Florida — both of which will vote later this month.

But even if Newt continues to slide and Paul and Santorum prove to be niche candidates only, Romney’s dream of an early knockout has been thwarted by the factions of the Republican Party that have been least willing to compromise: the Christian conservatives, the libertarians, and the powerful faction of one that is Newt Gingrich with a grudge.

Mitt Romney’s task of winning the Republican nomination, uniting the party, and ultimately beating Barack Obama just got that little bit harder.

4 January 2012