American Politics: The new kid in town

By Tom Switzer

“The conservative boogeyman is back,” says Commentary editor John Podhoretz.

He’s “George W. Bush on steroids,” cries political satirist Jon Stewart. 

“The White House has plenty to worry about,” concedes veteran Washington Post columnist Richard Cohen. 

“He’ll become a byword for Red State simple-mindedness in the New York Times and an object of derision for self-appointed cultural sophisticates everywhere,” gloats National Review editor Richard Lowry.

As these remarks on the part of liberals and conservatives indicate, Rick Perry is suddenly a very significant and controversial figure in American politics. The three-term Texas Governor jumped into the Republican presidential race last week and has quickly established himself as a front runner.

According to a Rasmussen poll among GOP voters, Perry (29 per cent) has a double-digit lead over former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney (18 per cent) and Minnesota congresswoman Michele Bachmann (13 per cent). 

Perry, 61, has plenty of strengths. He has served in the Air Force. He has never lost an election. He is a solid campaigner. His message — “America is not broken; Washington D.C. is broken” — could appeal to a patriotic public whose disillusionment with Beltway politics is at a record high.

He has a strong conservative base and deep connections to Tea Partiers, who are politically important in the primary season. In coming months, Perry is likely to knock out another darling of the Tea Party, Bachmann. This means that, assuming no other credible candidate enters the race, the GOP nomination will probably come down to a contest between Perry and the more moderate Romney.

And then there is Perry’s home state. Texas, which he has governed for more than a decade, is a dynamic part of the U.S. — with thriving cities, an increasing population and a diverse and growing economy tohat is no longer simply dependent on Big Oil.

Critics, most notably the New York Times columnist Paul Krugman, insist that the Texas economic success is a mirage. 

In June, however, it was revealed that Texas created more than a third of all net American jobs during the previous 24 months. As the Wall Street Journal editorialised last week: “Texas by far outpaced every other state, including those with large populations like New York and California and those with faster-growing economies, like North Dakota.”

There are several explanations for the Lone Star state’s economic success: no income tax, low regulations, and a population rate that has increased by 21 per cent in the past decade.

But credit also goes to Perry himself. He did not just inherit a well-functioning economy. He has managed it well, as the Journal argues, “mainly by avoiding the kind of policy disruptions that his liberal critics favour in the name of this or that social or political goal.”

To be sure, doubts dog Perry.

Some commentators warn he has too much in common with another cowboy boot-wearing, Texas governor-turned-president, George W. Bush, who left office in the political cellar. Both are gaffe-prone and shoot from the hip.

For instance, Perry has slammed Ben Bernanke, calling him “almost treasonous” because the Federal Reserve Chairman supports buying massive amounts of U.S. Treasury bonds from banks and other investors, in an effort to pump prime the financial system.

Perry’s language was highly inappropriate and, according to former Bush adviser Karl Rove, “not presidential”. In criticising the Fed, however, Perry is also criticising Bush, who embraced a weak dollar and easy money — policies that helped set the scene for America’s housing bubble and sovereign debt crisis.

Another potential weakness is Perry’s strong links to the religious right. This may appeal to evangelical Christians who constitute a significant voting bloc in the GOP primaries. During a general election, however, Perry’s muscular religiosity could alienate more mainstream voters in Milwaukee, Toledo, Montgomery County, and Philadelphia. These are crucial suburban areas in the battleground states of Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania — which, according to most seasoned Washington observers, will likely decide the next U.S. presidential election.

Then again, all the available evidence indicates that the broad cross-section of the American people is fed up with President Barack Obama. In recent months, polls show he has been losing to the “generic Republican”.

It’s no wonder Obama is very beatable. Unemployment remains stubbornly high at 9.1 per cent. Growth is consistently sluggish and a double-dip recession is more than likely. Consumer and business confidence has crashed to a 30-year low. Stock market volatility is the norm. The national debt is skyrocketing. Meanwhile, the U.S. remains bogged down in a quagmire in Afghanistan.

Hardly an ideal environment on which to campaign for re-election.

Perry may not be the one. Many big Republican party donors are still on the sidelines, perhaps waiting for a latecomer — New Jersey Governor Chris Christie? Congressman Paul Ryan? Even Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels? — to join the Republican presidential race.

Meanwhile, don’t underestimate Rick Perry.

Tom Switzer is a research associate at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney. This is the first of his regular blogs at American Review.

22 August 2011