America in Asia: US-Pakistan jousting

By C Raja Mohan

The decision by a US Congressional panel to freeze $700 million of assistance to Pakistan highlights the current troubled bilateral relationship but should not be over-interpreted. As a spokeswoman of the State Department clarified, the cut won’t take effect until both houses of the Congress approve and President Obama signs it into law.

During the last few months, the US has delayed the disbursement of aid flows to Pakistan that amounted to nearly $20 billion in the previous decade. The Pakistan army has, in turn, been bold in asserting that it can do without US assistance.

A series of incidents in 2011 — the Raymond Davis affair, the killing of Osama bin Laden, and the US cross border attacks on Pakistani posts on the Durand Line — have brought into sharp relief the growing contradiction between the US and Pakistani interests in Afghanistan.

Washington, which has known all along the Pakistan army’s double-dealing on terror, is no longer in a position to gloss over the problems with Rawalpindi, the headquarters of the Pakistani military. There is much resentment in the US against aiding Pakistan, which is actively helping people killing American soldiers in Afghanistan.

The Obama administration would like to leverage the anger in the US Congress to compel the Pakistan army to change its behaviour and cooperate in the stabilisation of Afghanistan. The threats to cut off US aid are part of this effort.

The Pakistan army, on the other hand, senses a rare opportunity to dominate Afghan affairs as US troops prepare to end their combat role there by 2014. In a bid to extract the maximum concessions from the US, Rawalpindi is whipping up anti-American sentiments in the nation. It has blocked overland supplies to US and NATO troops in Afghanistan, ordered the US out of a military base in Pakistan, and threatened to shoot down any American aircraft or American drone violating its air space. Beyond the public posturing in both Washington and Rawalpindi, efforts are on to patch up.

Towards a reset

The US defence secretary, Leon Panetta, who has been one of the more strident critics of Pakistan’s destabilisation in Afghanistan, has sounded more conciliatory this week during a visit to Kabul.

Panetta insisted that the US can’t win in Afghanistan without winning in Pakistan. “It’s going to be important, as we continue to move and progress in our efforts in Afghanistan, that we continue to outreach to Pakistan. This has been a difficult and complicated relationship but it is an important relationship”, Panetta said.

The Pentagon has put on hold drone attacks after its cross-border air raids that killed 24 Pakistani soldiers on November 26. There are reports that the Pakistan army has resumed institutional contacts with the NATO headquarters in Kabul and the military coordination units on the border.

Senior officials from Pakistan have said that the blockade against the US troops in Afghanistan will not be lifted until there is an “apology” from Washington. President Obama has offered condolences but not an apology. Washington and Rawalpindi might find a way to finesse the issue, if the US inquiry into the November raids can show some contrition.

Meanwhile, a conference of Pakistan’s envoys to major capitals this week has come up with a formal agenda for a US-Pakistan reset. It called for a comprehensive reworking of the bilateral arrangements for security cooperation in 2002 between the Bush administration and the military government led by General Pervez Musharraf. The envoys felt Musharraf had offered much too lenient terms to the United States military and the CIA to operate in Pakistan and they must now be renegotiated. The envoys appear to be endorsing what the Pakistan army leadership has been saying for a while.

Since they can’t do without each other, Washington and Rawalpindi have every reason to kiss and make up. Yet, unexpected events on the ground might continue to complicate the patch-up effort.

Afghan local police

With the US troops set to end their combat role in Afghanistan by 2014 and move steadily towards an advisory role, the Obama administration is considering the expansion of a controversial programme to build local militias.

Since last year, US special forces have trained and lightly armed nearly 10 000 Afghans to police their villages against the Taliban. These Afghan Local Police (ALP) units currently operate in about 55 districts. The US military wants to triple the ALP to 30 000, who can fan out into nearly 100 districts. While the Pentagon is pleased with the functioning of the ALP units, Western NGOs have criticised the militias of local extortion and human rights violations.

Originally conceived as a limited duration programme, the ALP could eventually emerge as an important force in the Afghan security landscape.

This post was originally published in the Indian Express.

20 December 2011