America in Asia: Middle East moves closer

By C Raja Mohan

Monday’s bombing of an Israeli diplomat’s car in New Delhi marks a definitive expansion of India’s western security perimeter into the Middle East. India must do all it can to quickly bring the plotters of the Delhi attack to book; failure to do so will only reinforce India’s image as a soft state and an attractive locale for other peoples’ wars.

Delhi can no longer treat the drums of war beating in the Middle East as distant, for they have begun to resonate in India.

The war in the Middle East is taking place along three axes, all of which involve Iran.

The first is the confrontation between the West and Iran on the question of Tehran’s controversial nuclear programme. Amidst failed negotiations to resolve the nuclear impasse, the United States and Europe have turned up the heat on Iran.

Beyond the measures already imposed by the United Nations Security Council, the Western countries have announced unilateral sanctions targeting Iran’s petroleum industry and the financial sector.

The talk of an American war with Iran has gained some traction in the election year, and the Obama administration has declared that no option has been taken off the table.

Second, there have been more muscular threats to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities from Israel. Beyond the tough talk, observers of the Middle East point to a shadow war that has begun to unfold between Israel and Iran.

Western media reports say that the recent killings of Iranian nuclear scientists have been carried out by Iranian dissident groups trained by Israeli security agencies. Other reports have said Israel has backed Iranian exiles in Pakistan to carry out attacks inside Iran.

Beyond the physical attacks, the US is reported to be unleashing cyber attacks on Iran’s nuclear programme. The Stuxnet computer worm injected into the Iranian system has apparently disabled nearly a fifth of centrifuges that produce bomb-grade uranium in Iran.

Third, the growing conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran has begun to play itself out across the Middle East, from Syria to Bahrain and from Lebanon to Iraq. Fearing that a “Shia crescent” across the Middle East, allegedly spawned by Iran, will undermine the stability of the Sunni Arab world, Saudi Arabia is fighting back to isolate Tehran and undermine its allies.

Unlike in the past, India no longer has the option of doing nothing and finessing the issues through anodyne diplomatic statements emphasising peaceful resolution of the disputes.

India’s own equities on both sides of the dividing line have dramatically risen in the last few years. India’s strategy in the Middle East can no longer focus on avoiding any cost. Instead, it must find ways to reduce it to the minimum.

The US is a leading strategic partner for India and Iran has emerged, once again, the test case for the future of the bilateral relationship. India must expect mounting pressure from Washington — from the administration, the Congress and the think-tanks — to stop hedging in the conflict between the US and Iran.

Israel, which contributes significantly to India’s defence, is not in a position to apply direct pressure on Delhi, but can reinforce that emanating from Washington.

India’s stakes in Saudi Arabia and the Arab kingdoms of the Persian Gulf are immense — they form the main source of India’s energy imports, massive hard currency remittances from the near 6 million migrant workers, and a major destination for India’s exports.

Unlike the US, these Arabs will not hector India in public. But they will press behind closed doors for Indian support in what they see as an existential confrontation with Tehran.

Iran, in turn, is an important neighbour, provides a significant portion — nearly 12 per cent — of India’s petroleum imports, and is a critical partner in coping with the emerging security challenges in Afghanistan.

India can’t ride out its current challenge in the Middle East by playing all sides. Foreign Secretary Ranjan Mathai was in Washington trying to explain India’s position on Iran. The foreign minister, S.M. Krishna, was in Israel recently to consolidate bilateral relations. A.K. Antony is in Saudi Arabia this week, the first ever visit to the Kingdom by an Indian defence minister. Meanwhile, India is in furious negotiations with Iran to find a way around the Western sanctions.

While engaging all sides in a crisis is important, Delhi must recognise that circumstances will force its hand, sooner than later.

This post was originally published at the Indian Express.

15 February 2012