Handle with care

John Ikenberry

The rise of China will be one of the great dramas of the 21st century. According to some observers we are witnessing the end of the American era and the gradual transition from a Western-oriented world order to one increasingly dominated by Asia. The historian Niall Ferguson argues that the bloody 20th century is in fact a story of “the descent of the West”; a “reorientation of the world” in which the Atlantic powers ceded their mastery of the world to the East. Asia is indeed booming. The extraordinary growth of the Chinese economy—and its active diplomacy—is already transforming East Asia. Future decades will almost certainly see further increases in Chinese power and further expansion of its influence on the world stage. But what sort of transition will it be? Will China seek to oppose and overturn the existing order or will it integrate with it? And what should be the Obama administration’s policy towards China in the context of these grand transitions?

There are three ways of looking at the rise of China and the policy challenges facing the United States. First, the rise of China does create dangers for international conflict but these dangers are not inevitable or predetermined. Scholars have described these dynamics of conflict generated by shifts in the global balance of power as “power transitions” and the “problem of peaceful change”. The rise of Germany in the late 19th century, challenging British hegemony, is the classic case of how power transitions can lead to war. In seeking a strategic response to the rise of China, the Obama administration needs to place the current moment in the context of these grand problems of power shifts and global change, understanding the dynamics, dangers and opportunities.

Second, the rise of China does not need to trigger a world-wrenching hegemonic power transition. The Sino-American power transition is potentially manageable if only because the international order that China faces is profoundly different from the orders that previous rising states have confronted. China does not just face the United States; it faces a Western order with global reach. Compared with previous international orders, the current one is much more open, expansive, integrated and rule-based. At the same time, the nuclear revolution has made war among great powers less likely. This has eliminated the major method by which rising powers have overturned old international orders defended by declining hegemonic states. China also has incentives to use the rules and institutions of the current Western order to protect its interests. In short, the international order today is different from orders of the past: it is harder to overturn and easier to join.

Third, unlike rivals in earlier power transitions, China and the United States have remarkable common or overlapping interests. These interests are in areas such as energy, the environment, and the “new security” issues related to terrorism and failed states. The ongoing global economic downturn has reaffirmed Chinese-American mutual dependence. In crafting a policy towards the rise of China, the Obama administration should find ways to seize upon this alignment of interests to develop a long-term strategic partnership.

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