Duelling dynasties

by Michael Schuman

We all think we know how world history will play out over the next 50 years. China, bursting with nationalistic energy, will overtake the United States as the world’s largest economy and dominant superpower. The US, burdened by debt, stretched by imperial obligations and hamstrung by political infighting, will continue its relentless and inevitable decline. If the 20th century was the American Century, the 21st will be the Chinese century.

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Modern makeover

by Shen Dingli

China is a rapidly rising power. Its confidence is up after a continuous decade of spectacular economic growth. During the eight years of the Bush administration, its economic output quadrupled. Today it is the world’s No. 2 trading country and the world’s No. 1 exporter. It possesses the largest foreign currency reserves in the world. In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, which saw the United States’s economy fall back, China sees a ‘strategic opportunity’ to extend its lead.

After three decades of economic development at home, China is shifting its hitherto low-key strategy of expanding its interests and asserting its diplomatic influence abroad. All of this will have profound implications for the region.

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The China complex

by Stephen S. Roach

The contrast between the world’s two most important economies couldn’t be sharper—the ascendancy of China versus the potential decline of the United States. The possibility of such an about-face does not sit well in Washington, where China bashing is on the rise once again. But this time, unlike earlier years, it may involve more than just words. In an era of acute labour market distress, the US could well ‘up the ante’ and resort to outright trade sanctions. Beijing would undoubtedly retaliate, setting in motion a dangerous chain of events that could quickly imperil the post-crisis world. 

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The Chinese century

by Kishore Mahbubani

We are entering a new era of world history marked by two distinct features. First, after 200 years, we will see the end of Western domination of world history (but not, of course, the end of the West). Second, we will see the return of Asia. From the year 1 to 1820, China and India were consistently the two largest economies of the world. Hence, by 2050 or earlier, when they once again become the two largest economies of the world, we will return to the historic norm of the past 2000 years. And, in history, it is easier to return to historical norms than to deviate from them.

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Not dead yet

by Josef Joffe

Half a century ago, on October 4, 1957, America was on the way out. On that day, the Soviet Union became the first space power in history, launching its Sputnik into orbit, and terror into the American soul. It “gave us a shock which hit many people as hard as Pearl Harbou r,” was a typical reaction, inflicting “a frightful blow on our pride.” America had grown “soft and complacent.” “Number One in everything,” the country was losing to the Soviet upstart. 

Soul-searching and self-doubt turned into an obsession—and, as the century advanced, into a national pastime. Call it ‘declinism.’ The basic theme—the country as has-been—has been recycled every 10 years. “It’s decline time in America,” trumpets this stock drama.

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